When Cars Go Electric: Understanding The Tipping Points Transforming Transportation

Understanding tipping points in technology adoption requires clarity on how and why technologies spread. To analyze the ongoing shift from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), it’s valuable to combine three complementary theories: Diffusion of innovations, logistic growth or the s-curve, and complex adaptive systems. Together, these models explain why technological changes are not gradual or linear but instead occur in sharp bursts once critical thresholds are passed. These thresholds can transform entire industries quickly, leaving established businesses vulnerable and opening significant opportunities for new entrants.

This is the first in a series of articles exploring this topic, triggered by multiple tipping and inflection point pieces I’ve seen over the past two to three years. It’s unclear to me how many articles will result, but the key models seem clear.

Michael Barnard