Record-Breaking El Niño Threatens Global Weather Extremes This Winter – How Will It Impact Montana?

A record-breaking El Niño set to peak this winter threatens global extremes in weather.

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization issued a stark warning on October 21 about an unprecedented El Niño event expected to intensify through December 2026. This natural Pacific Ocean warming, amplified by climate change, is poised to disrupt weather worldwide, with cascading impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, and humanitarian conditions.

Central Pacific temperatures could rise more than 6 degrees Celsius (about 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal from November to January, a shift described by WMO secretary Celeste Saulo as “off the monitoring charts” used over the past 40 years. Experts including Tom Fletcher of the U.N. and Ken Graham of NOAA highlight the threat of severe heat, drought, floods, and flash floods in regions from Latin America to Southern Africa and across the United States, where California has declared a state of emergency. The event is forecast with high confidence to be among the strongest on record, driven by data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and noted by climate scientists like Michael Mann, who also highlights uncertainties due to limited historical records.

During a strong El Niño, Montana generally experiences warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation and mountain snowpack over the fall and winter seasons, according to the Climate Prediction Center. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]   El Niño’s impacts are expected to last for several months beyond its peak, demanding ongoing monitoring of weather patterns.

‘Behemoth’ El Niño to upend global weather, UN warns
By Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY