COVID-19 lockdowns: When will isolation end, and what happens next?
New models are suggesting this wave of social distancing is just the first phase of a long war that may last until 2022.
“Anyone advising the end of social distancing now, needs to fully understand what the country will look like if we do that,” Inglesby wrote in an expansive Twitter thread. “COVID would spread widely, rapidly, terribly, could kill potentially millions in the year ahead with huge social and economic impact across the country.”
“If we want to control the spread of COVID-19 – rather than letting the disease control us – at least 80 percent of the Australian population must comply with strict social distancing measures for at least four months,” explains study lead on the new modeling, Mikhail Prokopenko. “However, if 90 percent of the population complies, then the duration could be as short as 13 to 14 weeks – meaning if we began tomorrow we could expect a control of COVID-19 by July.”
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.
Thanks to Bill C. for sharing
The most optimistic scenario is called the “May reboot,” which is achievable if new U.S. coronaviruses peak by mid-April, enabling widespread economic activity to resume in May.