A Record Warm Winter and Severe Summer Heatwave Is the Recipe for Significant Wildfires in Montana – Are You and Your Family Prepared?

Scientists and meteorologists, including experts from the National Weather Service and the Montana Climate Office, report that these conditions are drying vegetation and shifting the timing and intensity of wildfire seasons. This structural change complicates fire forecasting and community preparedness.

Montana experienced one of its warmest, driest winters on record, with Butte nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Late June rains briefly eased fire risk, but a prolonged July heatwave pushed temperatures into the 90s and above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, rapidly drying fuels. Snowpack at lower elevations melted early, reducing soil moisture critical for fire resistance. The Energy Release Component values, used to estimate vegetation dryness and fire potential, indicate heightened risk as these variables evolve. Community forums hosted by Climate Smart Missoula and the U.S. Forest Service aim to inform residents ahead of the ongoing season. Forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures will persist through July, with uneven rainfall unlikely to offset drying trends.

The National Weather Service will continue monitoring fuel moisture through late July to assess wildfire risk trajectories.

A Record-Warm Winter and Summer Heatwave Are Stoking Montana’s Wildfire Risk
By Derek Harrison, Inside Climate News