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Montana’s population is projected to grow and get grayer over the next 15 years
April 13, 2026/
The Montana Legislative Fiscal Division (LFD) reports that Montana’s population is projected to grow over the next 15 years, although the pandemic-era boom has slowed to an annual rate under 1%, with growth driven largely by in-migration. Key trends include an aging population, a decline in children under 18, and high-income earners moving to western mountain regions.
Population Growth Trends (LFD & Data Sources)
- Current Growth: Population growth has slowed from a 1.7% rate in 2021 to a projected 0.3-0.4% in 2025, a 25-year low.
- Growth Drivers: Between 2020 and 2026, Montana added over 45,000 residents, driven primarily by in-migration, while natural change (births minus deaths) has often been negative.
- Regional Trends: Growth is concentrated in western Montana, particularly in Flathead and Gallatin counties.
- Demographic Shifts: Projections indicate a decreasing population of children under 18 over the next 15 years.
Fiscal Impact and Analysis
- Migration Income: New residents, particularly from California, Washington, and Colorado, have significantly higher average incomes than existing residents, influencing the tax base.
- Revenue Growth: High population and income growth led to a 48% increase in state general revenue from 2019 to 2024, outpacing personal income growth, likely boosted by higher interest earnings.
- Budgetary Pressures: While population increases revenue, it also creates spending pressures in state services, with 2029 biennium forecasts indicating potential budgetary pressures if revenue growth slows.
The LFD uses data from the MARA Committee to analyze these demographic shifts and their impacts on the state’s financial outlook.
