Gasoline Cars May Cost More Than Their Value by 2031

By 2031, ordinary gasoline and diesel cars in the US may become worth less than their fuel, maintenance, and repair costs.

Paul, an EV driver for 15 years, argues that cheap used electric vehicles (EVs) will flood the market, making internal combustion engine (ICE) cars economically obsolete. This structural shift reflects trends already visible in Norway and China, where new and used EV sales are rapidly increasing while gasoline car values collapse.

Norway’s new battery EV sales reached 95.9 percent in 2025 and were 97.6 percent by July 2026, with battery EVs composing about 34.6 percent of the fleet. China’s new energy vehicles claimed about 65 percent of retail sales by July 2026, and used EV trades rose 29 percent year over year in early 2026. Some dealers report used gasoline car values dropping nearly 10 percent monthly in China. In the US, the federal EV tax credit expiration has reduced new battery EV sales to 5.9 percent year to date, but a large vehicle fleet averaging 12.8 years old suggests a gradual transition. Operating costs differ sharply: a typical US gasoline car might cost about $300 monthly for fuel and maintenance, while an EV can run around $100 monthly.

The author’s five-year bet hinges on continued declines in used EV prices, accessible charging, and stable gasoline costs, forecasting a gradual but definitive market transformation.

While Montana is not specifically addressed, its expansive geography and rural lifestyle could influence EV adoption rates and charging infrastructure development. Montana’s business community might see cost advantages shifting slowly as EV availability and charging networks evolve in less densely populated areas. This transition might hinge on balancing long-range driving needs with the economic incentives favoring EVs over older gasoline vehicles.

Stranded Asset, What Happens When A Gas Car Becomes Worth Less Than Zero As Transportation?
By Paul Fosse, CleanTechnica