Death Spiral – US High School Graduates Decline Threatens Regional Colleges Nationwide

American high school graduates in the United States peaked last year and will decline steadily through at least 2041, threatening enrollment-dependent colleges nationwide. This demographic shift could reshape the higher education landscape, particularly for regional institutions reliant on local students.

A recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia highlighted that about 60 colleges close annually, with the potential for that number to double amid falling enrollments. Regional colleges, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, are losing local students to national universities, which have seen applications rise dramatically. Pennsylvania’s State System merged six schools within its 14-campus system into two new institutions in 2022, and a Penn State campus is slated to close by 2027. The share of American teenagers enrolling in college dropped from 70% in 2016 to 62% in 2022, underscoring a broader decline.

Declining high school graduates begin this spring and will continue for two decades, forcing colleges to confront shrinking pools of prospective students. As Nicholas Hillman notes, losing local options may trigger a downward spiral, with fewer campuses and diminished access.

Montana, though not directly mentioned, might feel similar pressures if regional colleges face enrollment declines. The state’s vast geography and reliance on local institutions for higher education access could amplify challenges as young populations contract. Montana’s businesses and communities may need to anticipate shifts in workforce development linked to these educational trends.

The Looming College-Enrollment Death Spiral
By Jeffrey Selingo, The Atlantic