New Study Finds Traditional TV Ads Overvalued by 55 Percent

Advertisers may be overvaluing traditional TV ads by 55 percent, new research shows.

University of Notre Dame marketing experts and colleagues from Oklahoma State and the University of Texas at Austin analyzed real-time smart TV data to reassess the impact of traditional television advertising. Their findings challenge the longstanding reliance on conventional measurement methods and suggest a structural need for more precise evaluation.

Using second-by-second viewing data from millions of opt-in LG smart TV users, the researchers linked ad exposure to actual purchase behavior on food delivery apps over a four-month span. They discovered that traditional ratings-based approaches significantly overstate ad effectiveness, with actual viewer responsiveness peaking within two days of purchase and strongest among repeat customers. Despite streaming’s rise, advertisers still allocate $139 billion to linear TV ads this year, compared to $33 billion on streaming platforms. The study, published in _Marketing Science_, highlights that younger, tech-savvy sports fans react more favorably than older audiences, signaling potential for targeted campaign refinement.

Although the research does not specify future industry shifts, its implications for ad spend efficiency are clear.

For Montana businesses, where geographic dispersion and broadband access vary widely, these findings could prompt a reassessment of advertising strategies. Local marketers might consider how smart TV data integration could improve targeting in a state where traditional TV remains influential but consumer behavior may differ from urban markets.

Shannon Roddel – Notre Dame • Futurity