Colorado still lures job seekers-Migrants find plethora of work no longer exists

Thousands of people continue to move to Colorado searching for work, only to find their hopes are a mirage in a desert of joblessness.

By Aldo Svaldi
Denver Post Business Writer

Twenty thousand more people moved to the state than left it last year, despite an economy that shed at least 32,000 jobs.

A similar number are expected to settle here this year, even though there won’t be enough jobs for the people already here.

"It takes people a while to figure out conditions have changed, and it takes a while for them to change their plans," said Tracy Clark, a regional economist at Arizona State University in Tempe.

Colorado boasted the country’s fourth-fastest job growth rate during the 1990s as it churned out thousands of technology, telecommunications and service jobs.

The state created so many jobs that an average of 70,000 net newcomers a year moved here during that decade. Even then, the unemployment rate kept falling.

Phillip Gignac followed his girlfriend to Colorado before the holidays, expecting to find a job quickly.

But with Valentine’s Day coming up, Gignac is still looking for work.

"I didn’t think it would be this tough," said the former Maine resident, who left behind a job as a traveler counselor with AAA.

Not long ago, people like Gignac could pick up everything, move here and safely assume a job would be waiting.

"Normally, when people migrate here, they are moving because of jobs," said Jeff Romine, an economist with the Denver Regional Council of Governments.

Migration – though it still tops job growth – did slow by 70 percent, likely because of a lack of jobs. But the word didn’t get out to everybody.

"Migration always continues past the point beyond where it makes sense," Clark said. "I am not sure the message always gets through in the form it needs to."

Colorado needed to produce about 8,000 jobs for the newcomers it received last year; instead it suffered its greatest job losses since the Great Depression.

Dreams of technology jobs, which were in abundance during the 1990s, die hard.

Garth Duell moved from the East Coast to Portland, Ore., where he lost an $85,000-a-year technology job when his company shut down.

Duell decided to move in with a friend in Boulder in late October, thinking a larger metro area might offer more opportunities.

He has tried to find contract work through an employment firm and is getting by on small consulting jobs here and there.

In consulting, it is common for four or five firms to bid on a single technology contract, with each firm offering four or five qualified candidates, he said.

"I am not unemployable," said the 45-year-old Duell. "A year ago, I was making $80 an hour. It is hard to imagine it would be like this."

Job counselors say most of the people they see from out of state have a specific reason for being here. A friend or family member has given them a job lead, and some move to be closer to their family when times are tough.

"Significantly fewer people are coming to Denver with the hope and expectation that they will get a job without any kind of opportunity or family support in place," said Shepard Nevel, director of the Mayor’s Office of Workforce Development in Denver.

Employment centers, like the one Nevel oversees in Denver, are often among the first places where unemployed out-of-staters show up.

About 5 percent to 10 percent of the people coming into job centers in the metro area are from out of state, a ratio that has held steady in good times and bad, according to estimates from the centers.

But the mix of where people are coming from has changed.

"We have been seeing more people from Arizona and Michigan. Before it was Texas and California," said Pat Buys, director of Arapahoe/Douglas Works.

Three years ago, Buys oversaw a survey counting the large number of unfilled jobs. Now she is trying to find work for a caseload that has more than doubled.

Besides employing newcomers, Colorado must deal with a population that is internally growing at about 1 percent a year, or 40,000 people, said Mike Rose, an economist with the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

U.S. Bank regional economist Tucker Hart Adams estimates the state needs job growth of about 2 percent a year just to meet its own internal growth.

But the state will likely see job growth of only 1 percent this year, according to a forecast from the University of Colorado at Boulder. And even that prediction may prove optimistic. The university’s forecast was off the mark last year, predicting job growth though the state lost jobs.

"We tell them it is more difficult than before," Nevel said of job seekers who call his office before moving.

A growing concern is that some people who move here are already on the edge financially, possibly turning an economic problem into a social crisis.

"The concern with these individuals moving here is do they have enough in savings and can they live on one income for nine or six months," Romine said.

Unlike local job seekers who can tap their home equity to get through rough spots, newcomers often lack such options.

Nevel said his office is referring a larger number of the unemployed to Denver Social Services for assistance.

"With extended unemployment, the demand for subsidized child care far exceeds supply. The homeless shelters are busier than ever. Requests for food have increased," he said. "The safety net is being stretched to the point of tearing."

Duell said he sold most of his possessions before moving from Portland and is at the end of his financial cushion.

But he adds he is learning to appreciate a much simpler lifestyle. "It took a while to get used to, but all in all I am doing all right," he said.

In Gignac’s case, his girlfriend, who moved here to take an insurance job, is supporting him.

Gignac, 48, said he is considering going to school to retrain, potentially for a health care job, but doesn’t know how he would pay for it.

He refuses to apply for unemployment benefits and wonders why his experience at AAA and his 28 years before that as a newspaper circulation area manager in Maine can’t land him a job.

Gignac who has experience in sales, marketing and collections, said he is considering taking a job selling concessions at the Pepsi Center to make ends meet.

But even that isn’t proving a shoe-in.

"I am seeing people coming in that are willing to take 75 percent salary cuts just to be able to stay afloat," said Jeff Morris, program manager of employment services at the Tri-County Workforce Center in Golden.

Although Gignac said he could return to Maine, he doesn’t want to. Both he and Duell said they will tough it out until something turns up.

"At this point I am willing to take whatever comes around," Gignac said. "I need to start getting some income after being unemployed two months."

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