Bold technology predictions for 2012

Smart devices that talk to each other without human intervention, store merchandise that rings itself up for purchase and machines that finally understand the spoken word are just some of the new technologies awaiting us in the year 2012.

By Mike Langberg
Mercury News

On Monday I gave myself a “B” for my 1992 predictions of what life would be like in 2002.

Before sticking my neck out another 10 years, I consulted three Silicon Valley futurists: Tim Bajarin, president of technology consulting firm Creative Strategies in Campbell; Tim Brown, president of Palo Alto design firm Ideo; and Paul Saffo, a director of the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park.

I’ve borrowed many ideas from these three deep thinkers, but the predictions that follow are mine — so I deserve all the blame for anything that looks silly 10 years from now.

So here are my five big ideas for how technology will reshape our daily routines in 2012:

• The Internet is everywhere — and nowhere.

Almost every object we own that uses electricity will be connected to the Internet in 2012, yet we will rarely be aware of this near-universal connectivity, because so much of the conversation will be machine-to-machine communication.

You’ll no longer be surprised to get a call from the repair center at Sears or Maytag saying your washing machine is using too much hot water and needs adjustment — information the washing machine has sent through the Net, without any action of your part, back to the factory where it was built.

• All present and accounted for — always.

Instant messaging is popular, in part, because IM software tells you which of your friends are online waiting to chat. This concept, formally known as “presence,” will be extended to all forms of electronic communication.

Family, friends and co-workers will be able to instantly see where you are, thanks to wireless phones even tinier than what’s available today and other devices with built-in GPS locators. You’ll be able to specify how you wish to be reached: by text if you’re busy, by voice or video if you’re free. Between now and 2012, expect major controversy on whether employers, schools and advertisers should have access to your “presence.”

• Walk now, pay later.

Stores without doors will rely on RFID, or radio-frequency identification, tags to keep track of inventory and payment. These tiny semiconductors communicate a small amount of information, such as a product serial number, when queried by inexpensive transmitter/receivers. Only recently selling for several dollars, RFID chips should cost only a few cents next year and will be smaller than a grain of rice.

In 2012, RFID chips will sell for less than a penny and be printed onto packaging and price tags — the beginning of the end for cash registers. You walk into a store, put what you want in a bag and walk out the door. An RFID transmitter/receiver in the entryway instantly totals up your purchases and makes a deduction from the RFID credit card in your wallet. If nothing else, RFID could have spared Winona Ryder her recent and very embarrassing shoplifting arrest.

• Prime time is your time.

Every cable and satellite television receiver will include a hard disk for recording shows, and those disks will have a minimum capacity of one terabyte, or 1,000 gigabytes, enough to store hundreds of hours of high-definition programming.

Except for special events such as the Super Bowl and the Academy Awards, no one will watch TV shows at the time they are transmitted, and conventional 30-second commercials will be rare because advertisers won’t pay when most viewers can hit the fast-forward button. Major broadcast networks and traditional prime-time programming will be fading, with most entertainment sold through either a monthly subscription or a pay-per-view fee.

• Finally, we can talk to our computers.

I’m recycling a prediction from 1992 that didn’t come true this year but just might happen by 2012: Reliable speech recognition will allow computers, phones and household appliances to understand our spoken commands.

Driving alone down an unfamiliar interstate, it won’t seem to odd to say, “Car, how far to the next gas station?” and for the car to reply “Eight miles ahead at exit 37, there is a Chevron and a Union 76.” You won’t need to know or care that your car required GPS navigation, a speech-recognition processor, a text-to-speech synthesizer and a wireless data link to an online Yellow Pages directory to answer what seems like a simple question.

Not everything will change in the next decade. I predict the Mercury News will continue, printed on paper and delivered to doorsteps every morning. The business of putting news and ads together on newsprint has worked for more than a century and probably has at least a few more decades of life. As for me, if I’m still here in 2012, I’ll dig out this column and give myself another report card.

Contact Mike Langberg at [email protected] or (408) 920-5084. Past columns may be read at http://www.langberg.com.

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/4635704.htm