Voters Express Pessimism about Montana

A recent poll of registered voters in Montana indicated the public has strong pessimism about the direction of state government. “We see a real strong sense of dissatisfaction about all segments of state leadership,” said Webb Brown, Montana Chamber President. “It’s pretty much across the board.”

In a Montana Chamber statewide poll conducted in December by Market Research Insight (MRI) of 800 registered Montana voters, nearly half (47%) said state government is moving in the wrong direction. In the same poll, more than half said they would prefer to give someone else a seat rather than reelect their local incumbent legislator. Both political parties lost ground among voters, as did advocacy groups, and even education. MRI conducted similar polls for the state chamber in 2001, 1999, 1995, and 1992.

The poll shows that the public view of state government’s direction has changed markedly over the years. Besides the 47% disapproval, only 29% felt that state government was on the right track. The numbers were nearly reversed in 2001, with 42% approval and 33% disapproval in the 2001 poll. In 1999, exactly half the respondents said state government was moving in the right direction, while 26% thought it was wrong. “I think the tough fiscal years we’ve seen recently have really soured Montanans on state government,” said Brown.

Legislative incumbents didn’t fare well in this poll. More than half (52%) of voters said they would prefer not to re-elect incumbents, with only 31% supporting them. That number was basically even in 2001 (42% retain, 43% new) and similar to this year in the 1999 poll (39% retain, 49% new). In the 1995 poll, 56% said they would re-elect their incumbent, while only 28% said they would prefer another.

Montanans also still think Republicans manage state government better (36%) than Democrats (29%), although nearly as many (35%) think it makes no difference. Republicans showed a big gain in support in 2001, but have returned to 1999 levels, with Democrats falling slightly. Democrats actually had a slight lead (18% to 12%) in the 1992 poll, but fell out of favor 13% to 20% in 1995. In both those polls, over 60% of voters said political party made no difference in government management.

When voters were asked to express their party preference when voting on legislative seats, 30% said they would vote Republican, 23% Democrat, and a majority (40%) said they would vote equally between the parties. On another political choice question asked in the Chamber poll, 36% said they think of themselves as Democrat, while 46% said Republican. Looking at the 2001 poll, voter preference for Democrats dropped two points while voter preference for Republicans fell by four points.

Voter dissatisfaction continues with advocacy groups. The poll asked voters if they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if they knew that person was endorsed or financially supported by a particular organization. Every group lost four to ten percentage points in support among voters.

The Montana Chamber and local chambers of commerce scored well (57%) but lost ground from their 67% level in 2001. Only 17% of voters would oppose a “chambers” candidate. Like other responses, levels returned more to 1999 poll figures, when chambers enjoyed 55% support and 18% opposition.

Every other advocacy group also lost ground among voters. Top marks went to ag organizations, with a whopping 70% approval rating, but down from 77% in 2001. Teachers’ organizations received 64% support, with 20% opposition, losing 4 points in favor, but gaining 2 points in opposition from 2001 levels. The Montana AFL-CIO and other labor unions (excluding teachers) registered 37% support, 36% opposition, also down ten points from 2001, like chambers.

The Montana Wood Products Association matched chambers at 55% support and 17% opposition. Environmental groups registered 27% support and 53% opposition. The only other group included in the poll was the Montana Trial Lawyers Association at 14% agreement, 55% opposition.

Even public education took a hit in voter satisfaction. Only 55% said they are “satisfied” with public schools in Montana, while dissatisfaction registered 35%. Satisfaction levels are down twelve points from the 2001 poll and the first mark below 60% approval in the history of the poll. Likewise, dissatisfaction levels gained ten points, breaking 30% level for the first time ever.

“This strong skepticism, or dissatisfaction across all sectors is disturbing,” said Brown. He notes many figures are comparable to 1999 levels, with the poll taken in December 2001 showing stronger levels of support. “Maybe we’re seeing a return to normalcy after the surge of positive patriotism following the 9/11 tragedy.”

“All this combines to send us a strong message of leadership for the state,” said Brown. “We know we need to do a better job of working on our economy. That’s what we intend to do this year.”

Webb Scott Brown, CAE, President/CEO

Montana Chamber of Commerce – your business advocate

Montana Liability Coalition, Montana Manufacturing Council, and Montana Assn. of Chamber Executives

2030 Eleventh Avenue, Suite 21 / PO Box 1730

Helena, Montana 59624-1730

406-442-2405 ext. 101 / 406-442-2409 fax / 406-431-9508 cell

http://www.montanachamber.net /

or:

Webb Brown, Executive Vice President

Montana Chamber Foundation

406-443-7888

PO Box 1162

Helena MT 59624-1162