Idaho economy may be on cusp of recovery

Holiday season will yield clues, economist says

At George´s Shoe Shop in Caldwell, when the economy is down, shoe repairs pick up.

Wayne Hoffman
The Idaho Statesman

When the economy recovers, shoe sales pick up.

What´s going on now?

“Right now, sales are coming up a bit; repairs also up,” says owner Glenn Peterson.

What?

Short answer: There are signs of an economic recovery, but don´t get too excited yet and overstock the store with new shoes.

The Kempthorne administration reported Tuesday that Idaho´s economy “appears on the cusp of better times.”

Still, while the governor´s Division of Financial Management said the state´s economy has “improved marginally” since the summer, state economists warned against beating the recovery drum too strongly.

Even national news that payrolls grew by 57,000 in September, ending months of job losses, isn´t enough to say the nation is bent on better financial times.

“Many economists will no doubt be tempted to boost their forecasts based on the recent stream of positive economic news,” state economists Mike Ferguson and Derek Santos report in the agency´s latest gauge of Idaho´s economic health.

“The September employment gain was an important milestone. However, it was just one month´s data. While it could mark the beginning of a turnaround, a few more months of employment gains are what it will take to raise the comfort level, that the job-loss recovery has given way to an expanding workforce.”

“There appears to be ample evidence the economy turned a corner this fall,” the report says. “However, there is less evidence that forecasts should be raised.”

Boise economist John Church agrees with the administration´s assessment.

The nation appears to be experiencing a jobless recovery, and the holiday shopping and hiring season may be a major determiner “of whether the average American thinks we´re out of this recession,” Church said.

The Kempthorne administration´s report said nonfarm jobs in Idaho are expected to grow twice as fast as predicted during the current year, and personal income is expected to grow at a slightly better clip than projected in July, but still less than 1 percent.

Non-farm employment is the labor benchmark most used by economists to measure economic health.

Personal income is expected to grow faster than previously estimated.

Largely unchanged from the last report are predictions that the all-important high tech sector is “poised for a recovery.”

“If the current forecast holds, Idaho should be closing a chapter of protracted softness and opening a chapter of faster growth,” the report says.

Perhaps good news for George´s Shoe Shop, where the economy of late is summed up thusly:

“No change. It´s pretty much the same, I´d say,” said Peterson.

To offer story ideas or comments, contact Wayne Hoffman
[email protected] or 377-6416

http://www.idahostatesman.com/story.asp?ID=52681