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Wyoming economy, population to grow slowly

Wyoming’s economic and population growth are expected to creep along at a snail’s pace over the next 10 years, according to a new report from the state Division of Economic Analysis.

Associated Press Billings Gazette

Of the two, the state’s population is predicted to grow more slowly, rising just 3.9 percent from 498,700 people in 2002 to 523,480 by 2012, said Wenlin Liu, a senior state economist who prepared the outlook for the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information.

Because any gains in population through births are countered by a near equal amount of deaths, the state’s only real population growth will likely come through new adult residents, Liu said.

Wyoming has experienced modest growth in its population in recent years, primarily due to an influx of people looking for jobs.

However, "as soon as the economy recovers, we feel like (neighboring states) will attract our workers again," Liu said. "When their economy is doing good and their wages are higher, they will attract our young people."

According to the report, the number of young people is expected to fall in Wyoming the next 10 years as the rest of the population ages – a national trend predicted to be more pronounced in the Cowboy State.

That, Liu said, is primarily due to an economic boom in the 1970s and 1980s that attracted a large number of young people to Wyoming to work in the mining industry. The boom went bust in the ’80s, but many stayed.

"It just happened that many of them were baby boomers," Liu said.

As those baby boomers begin to retire by about 2010, the demand on health and social services will rise, making the industries two of the fastest-growing sectors in the state, Liu said.

The number of health and social services jobs are predicted to jump from 59,540 this year to 70,220 by 2012 – an increase of 18 percent.

According to Liu, retail trade will be the state’s other economic hot spot, likely growing to 54,040 jobs in the next decade. Wages are also expected to increase by more than half to $1.2 billion.

The state’s mining industry, long a revenues boon for the state, will further increase its earnings to $1.4 billion in 2012, but the number of jobs is expected to fall from 19,000 to 18,000 in that time.

Liu attributed the predicted decrease to increased efficiency.

"In the 1990s, coal mining production increased tremendously, but employment didn’t change much," he said.

Manufacturing is also predicted to fluctuate somewhat in the next decade, while the state’s remaining non-agricultural industries will see slow gains in employment, Liu said.

Total employment is forecast to grow by 9.1 percent from 249,350 jobs this year to 272,050 in 2012. Total wages and salaries will also increase from $7.9 billion to $12.1 billion.

Copyright 2003 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Copyright © The Billings Gazette, a division of Lee Enterprises.

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2003/08/25/build/wyoming/35-growth.inc

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