GFDA releases Economic Impact of Population Growth Report

From the launch of our public/private economic development partnership 15 years ago, GFDA http://www.GFDevelopment.org has focused on growing and diversifying our regional economy, and supporting the creation of higher wage jobs. Our investors and partners can be proud of the many successes we have achieved. Team work, pursuing market-driven opportunities, and exceptional client service have been the keys to securing private sector investment.

Fifteen years ago, our average wages were 67% of the national average. Now they have climbed to 75%. We’ve made strides in revitalizing our downtown and riverfront, built a BNSF-certified rail industrial park, expanded our manufacturing base, spurred construction of hundreds of new apartments, and helped many entrepreneurs and existing businesses to thrive. Projects that had been talked about for years are now reality.

Now, it’s time to turn our attention to a challenge we have faced for far too long, population growth. Turning challenges into opportunity is our mantra, and growing our population offers tremendous economic potential.

The Great Falls MSA (Cascade County) population was estimated by the U.S. Census to be 81,755 in 2016, that’s 4,856 people less than our population peak in 1978.

At 3.8% unemployment, our existing businesses can’t continue to grow without the talent that drives their success. Attracting people to come home to Great Falls, or to join our community for the first time, will enable our companies to grow, entrepreneurs to start new businesses, and companies from afar to open operations in our region.

Population growth also creates economic impact in and of itself, just from providing the housing, retail and services new residents need. We wanted to know how much potential there is purely from just population growth — what would the economic impact be if we could grow our population at the same rate as the statewide average (0.85%/year from 2010-2016). What if we grow at the same rate as Billings (1.07%/year from 2010-2016)? And, what would just the raw impact be of increasing our population by 1,000 people?

We commissioned an analysis from Chmura Economics & Analytics to answer these questions. Today, we’re excited to release The Economic Impact of Population Growth in Great Falls, Montana.

If we grow our population at the Montana average, the first year would generate local economic impact of $13 million and create 119 jobs. This is in addition to the economic growth that would occur by providing talent needed by our local growing companies. Over 10 years, the economic impact would be over $715 million.

If we can reach the growth rate of Billings, the first year economic impact would be $16.3 million, and top $896 million over 10 years.

If we grow our population by just 1,000 people, it would generate $18.7 impact in the first year and create 170 jobs. Getting back to our peak population of 1978 would add $93.5 million per year and 850 jobs to our local economy.

What is the potential for local retail and services businesses? Population growth at the state average would add $7.68 million in direct spending to our economy in the first year, multiplying every year after that. In the first year, it would boost local businesses by adding $1.2 million in direct spending in food, $1.54 million in housing, $0.5 million in furniture, appliances and household supplies, $0.27 million in apparel, $0.72 million in healthcare, and $0.65 million in entertainment and personal services.

And that’s just in the first year. It’s time we grow the pie! Think of the impact of 10 years of modest population growth. The statewide average is only 0.85%/year. Certainly we can achieve and sustain that!

Let’s put Team Great Falls to work to turn this long-time population challenge into an opportunity that benefits all of Cascade County and surrounding region!

Brett

Brett Doney
[email protected]
http://www.GFDevelopment.org
1-406-750-2119

Economic Growth, Diversification and High Wage Jobs

GFDA and High Plains Financial are Equal Opportunity Lenders.