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Recession never hit Montana

March 20, 2002 /

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HELENA (AP) – Montana appears to have escaped the economic effects of the national recession and
the terrorist attacks of last year, a leading economist has concluded.

Associated Press Billings Gazette

"I’m almost ready to proclaim that the recession never hit Montana," Paul Polzin, director for the Montana
Bureau of Business and Economic Research, said Tuesday. "Now that the U.S. economy is definitely
recovering, I think it is unlikely that the Montana economy will enter a recession."
The notion that the recession passed by Montana entirely is a new perspective from Polzin, who has
previously said only that the recession was not as severe in Montana as elsewhere.
The state dodged both the recession bullet and the effects of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, he said.

The latest evidence of that is a new survey of consumer sentiment by the bureau. It shows that Montanans
in March are more optimistic about the economy than they were even before the terror attacks.
The index of consumer sentiment in Montana, based on a grading system developed by the University of
Michigan, was at 102.4 last June and at almost 110 this month. Attitudes never declined in the aftermath of
attacks, as was measured nationally.
The index of U.S. consumer sentiment dropped from 91.5 in August to just under 82 in September and has
slowly improved since then to 95 this month, according to the UM survey.
Polzin said the trend matches the path of the recovering national economy.
In Montana, several economic sectors felt a slowdown over the past few months, primarily high-tech
manufacturing and business travel in Billings and Missoula, he said. "But they were not enough to have a
significant impact on the overall economy."
He said state also had a strong showing in construction and the wood products industry, two areas
benefiting from lowered interest rates. In addition, national figures show a loss of jobs that Montana never
experienced.
"I really doubt that the Montana economy is going to go counter to the U.S. economy and go into recession,"
he said. "The evidence now suggests the worst is behind us and the worst wasn’t very bad."
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