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Information wants to be free — but it isn’t

When it comes to making predictions, columnists are best advised to follow the lead of the horoscope writers rather than the horse-race handicappers.

After all, it’s very easy to see whether the nag the tout picked as the favorite actually finished in the money or took the scenic route to the wire. The horoscope writers, on the other hand, are masters of writing vague and generic forecasts that fit every person in every circumstance, allowing them to say, no matter the outcome, "Oh yes, I predicted that."

That guidance notwithstanding, here’s a modest, albeit specific, prediction to consider:

The advertising model upon which so many Internet and media businesses are based today constitutes a house of cards, awaiting merely a puff of breath or the flick of a finger to cause it to collapse. In 10 years — maybe less — the notion of free content underwritten by advertising revenue will have been swept away by something else.

By BILL VIRGIN
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER COLUMNIST

Full Story: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/virgin/224544_virgin17.html

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