Economic report: Idaho expects 45,000 new jobs by 2007

State forecast sees slight dip in homebuilding

The state’s economic outlook is brighter than it was just a few months ago, the Kempthorne administration announced Friday.

Wayne Hoffman
The Idaho Statesman

http://www.idahostatesman.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040731/NEWS0203/407310336/1029/NEWS02

In their July report, the governor’s economists said nonfarm employment growth is expected to continue to improve — at a slightly better rate than previously thought — each year through 2007, adding another 45,000 jobs to the state.

Camille Schoenhut hopes that translates into a job for her, but so far, she’s pessimistic.

"I’m not seeing it, no," the Boise woman said during a break from checking the want ads online at one of the state’s employment offices. "There’s nothing out there."

Job-hunter Aaron Willardson saw something else on his computer screen.

The Boise resident is convinced the right job is out there for him, despite just being laid off from Wells Fargo.

"I think there’s a lot of jobs out there. It depends on what you want to do," he said.

The economists’ report says that not only is the state’s job outlook better than it was in April, they expect 3,000 to 4,000 more jobs each year than previously thought.

A chunk of that growth is likely to come from housing construction, which was expected to taper off at the end of 2003 and the start of 2004.

That didn’t happen.

It will, economists said, but "the decline is not expected to be as severe as previously projected."

Even after home building starts decline, the number of houses built will continue to outpace historical averages, economists predict.

The new report also finds that growth in the computers and electronics sector will be largely flat for the remainder of 2004.

Kempthorne chief economist Michael Ferguson said that’s because the high-tech sector "has hit some bumps in the road. There’s not as strong a recovery there."

The high-tech sector’s first quarter growth broke a three-year string of employment retreats, and the new report says more expansion is to come starting next year.

"It’s still moving ahead, but it’s not going to feel like it did in the 1990s," Ferguson said.

The report is vital for the Kempthorne administration, which will use it as the basis for calculating how much new tax revenue the state can expect for the general fund during the current budget year and beyond.

Kempthorne’s economists are expected to announce their findings in late August.

Those results will play significantly into the governor’s and lawmakers’ decisions about which state programs get funded and by how much, and also whether it will take higher taxes to fulfill more than $2 billion in spending obligations.

Specifically how that will play out is not entirely clear, but if it’s more money the state is looking for, the new economic report indicates Idahoans will have some $365 million more personal income this year than previously expected, and $322 million more the next.

The new report says the number of nonfarm jobs in the state will increase from more than 572,500 in 2003 to more than 617,200 by 2007.

The report also says the mix of jobs available in Idaho will change. There are more construction jobs, but expectations for the manufacturing sector have been lowered.

THE JOB OUTLOOK IN SEVEN FIELDS

Computers and electronics

The new Idaho economic outlook report says, "Idaho’s computer and electronics sector showed signs of improvement in the first quarter of this year when employment posted its first gain in three years.

Despite the first quarter’s increase, Idaho computer and electronics employment growth should be flat in 2004. However, it is expected to expand 1.9 percent in 2005, 3.1 percent in 2006 and 3.9 percent in 2007."

Overall income averages per sector were not available Friday afternoon. Computer programmers, who might fall under this category, earn an average of $27.54 an hour, according to the Department of Commerce and Labor

Construction

This sector is responsible for a good deal of the high hopes in the new economic forecast. Construction activities haven’t fallen off as rapidly as had been expected, and over the next three years, there will be more housing construction taking place than previously expected. While the construction activity will decrease over the next three years, home building will still be higher than historical averages.

Construction trade workers earn an average of $15.24 an hour, according to the Department of Commerce and Labor.

Logging and wood products

The hard-hit logging and wood products sector will continue to struggle the next few years, but will get a slight break in 2007. The report says this sector will decline by 4.7 percent next year and 3.7 percent in 2006. In 2007, the sector should bounce back by about 1.1 percent.

Logging equipment operators earn an average of $15.02 an hour, according to the Department of Commerce and Labor.

Mining and chemicals

Another struggling sector of the state’s economy, mining and chemicals are expected to continue to see declines in employment the next few years. According to the outlook report, "It is difficult to see any relief on the horizon for Idaho’s mining and chemical sectors."

A mine safety engineer earns an average of $37.86 an hour, according to the Department of Commerce and Labor.

Food processing

Employment growth for this sector is expected to take place next year, but, said the report, "these increases will not be robust enough to offset the losses it has experienced in recent years. The last time this sector’s employment increased was in 1997."

Food processing workers earn an average of $10.63 an hour, according to the state Department of Commerce and Labor.

Government

Employment in state and local government workforces is expected to grow more slowly than it has historically (2.7 percent). The expected growth for 2004 and 2005 is just 0.7. In 2006, the figure picks up ever so slightly to 0.9 percent. By 2007, the growth in the sector is 1.1 percent. The education workforce will do better — projected at about 1.4 percent growth this year, 1 percent in 2005 and 1.2 percent in 2006. The federal government’s workforce in Idaho is expected to become smaller, from 13,621 last year to 13,117, according to the report.

The average annual salary for Idaho state employees is $31,444, according to the Idaho Division of Human Resources.

Nongoods-producing industries

This sweeping category of businesses is expected to grow at 2 percent this year, 2.2 percent in 2005 and 2.6 percent in 2006 and 2007. Here’s the breakdown, with income averages from the
Department of Commerce and Labor:

• Professional and business services are expected to add jobs at a clip three times what was experienced in 2003. A lawyer may earn $42.26 an hour.

• Education and health services are expected to grow at 3.3 percent a year. Health practitioners and operators, which is a very large category of health professionals, might earn an average $24.98 an hour.

• Leisure and hospitality services is expected to grow at 3.2 percent per year, but what happens in that category depends a good deal on what happens with snowpack in the mountains, gasoline prices and airfares. Amusement and recreation attendants earn an average of $7.16 an hour.

• Information services are expected to increase 3.7 percent a year, bolstered by the number of call centers in the state. Telemarketers earn an average of $10.16 per hour.

• Financial services are expected to increase 2.2 percent. Bookkeepers and auditing clerks earn $12.36 an hour.

• Transportation, warehousing and utilities are projected to have 1.4 percent growth. Bus drivers average $11.17 an hour.

• Retail trade is forecast to grow 2.4 percent, while wholesale trade is at 0.8 percent. Retail sales clerks earn $9.42 an hour.